Six Nations: Wales v France Analysis and Predictions

  The situation facing both Wales and France may have seemed unfathomable to many just a few short weeks ago; Les Bleus go into their third round match with prospects of a grand-slam still very much alive, whilst the Welsh are fighting to keep their championship alive following two unconvincing performances against Italy and Ireland. It is very much an all-to-play-for game.

  It’s not just the teams who have everything to play for; individual players, particularly in the Welsh camp, have been warned that their international careers are on the line. Mike Phillips is one high-profile casualty, dropping to the bench to make way for the Osprey’s Rhys Webb. Longstanding teammates Adam Jones, Gethin Jenkins, and Dan Lydiate, despite all retaining their starting spots, will all be aware that they are just one more poor performance away from being dropped.

  Unenforced changes have affected Welsh momentum as well; injuries to centres Jonathan Davies and Scott Williams mean that George North finds himself partnering Jamie Roberts, with Liam Williams being promoted to the wing. Even with so many changes, one question still remains; will there be any evidence of a plan B this week, should intial attempts misfire? Regardless, it seems that no amount of injuries or tactical adjustments will cause Warren Gatland to allow James Hook to set foot on a rugby pitch. Perhaps his tackle-bag holding ability is too tremendous for him to be risked on the field of battle…

The centre battle between North and Bastareaud will be a key individual contest. Image: WRU

  France, by comparison, come into this game with their starting XV unchanged, save for the injured Bernard Le Roux making way for Wenceslas Lauret – such consistency is a rare thing for a team under the management of Philippe Saint-Andre, but might be the key to their succcess. Whilst questions over Mathieu Bastareaud’s fitness remain, he has been named as starting alongside Wesley Fofana. Whilst Bastareaud’s presence in the midfields promises a bone-shattering clash of the titans with North, it is the possibility of a bit of Fofana flair against a man playing out of position that points towards the points. Although North does have experience of playing in the centre position, Fofana is an out-and-out 12, and will be looking to create a mismatch between himself and the mountainous North.

  As always, the performance of the forwards will determine how the game goes. Although Webb has been introduced to add a bit of zip to the Welsh distribution, his presence will be worthless if his forwards fail as they did against Ireland. The confrontation between clattering no 8s Louis Picamoles and Taulupe Faletau will be one to savour, whilst the battle of two powerful front-rows promises to provide a competitive scrum, if it can just stay up for a few seconds. With both Welsh props playing for their international career, expect sparks in that department.

  As always, home advantage will count for a lot; the Millennium Stadium is no easy place for any team to win at. With the crowd on their side, will this Welsh team be able to bounce back from a dismal defeat in Dublin, or will the pressure prove too much for them on this occasion?

Prediction: 

  Even with a home-crowd and the motivation of saving their careers and making Six Nations history, I feel that injury disruptions and inopportune dips in form will be Wales’ undoing, and that a few spells of French magic will win the day for the visitors. France to win by 4.

SQUADS:

Wales: 15 L Halfpenny, 14 A Cuthbert, 13 G North, 12 J Roberts, 11 L Williams, 10 R Priestland, 9 R Webb; 1 G Jenkins, 2 R Hibbard, 3 A Jones, 4 L Charteris, 5 A-W Jones, 6 D Lydiate, 7 S Warburton (c), 8 T Faletau.

Replacements: K Owens, P James, R Jones, J Ball, J Tipuric, M Phillips, D Biggar, J Hook.

France: 15 B Dulin, 14 Y Huget, 13 M Bastareaud, 12 W Fofana, 11 H Bonneval, 10 J Plisson, 9 J-M Doussain; 1 T Domingo, 2 D Szarzewski, 3 N Mas, 4 P Pape (c), 5 Y Maestri, 6 Y Nyanga, 7 W Lauret, 8 L Picamoles.

Replacements: B Mach, Y Forestier, V Debaty, S Vahaamahina, D Chouly, M Machenaud, R Tales, G Fickou.

Date: Friday, February 21

Kick-off: 20:00 GMT

Venue: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff

Referee: Alain Rolland (Ireland)

Touch Judges: John Lacey (Ireland) & Dudley Phillips (Ireland)

TMO: Graham Hughes (England)

Article by Alex Hawksworth-Brookes